Black Friday-Cyber Monday 2025 delivered another record‑breaking peak for ecommerce, with global platforms reporting strong double‑digit growth in sales and order volumes. Australian shoppers again ranked among the most active, taking advantage of deep discounts and extended promotions across November. But the most important story for brands isn’t just the spike - it’s what happens afterward.

Data from recent BFCM periods shows that repeat buyers increasingly drive a disproportionate share of revenue, even during peak discount windows. That means the real opportunity from BFCM 2025 is not just the revenue booked over a few days, but the list of customers you can nurture through 2026.

What BFCM 2025 tells us about customers

A few patterns in customer behaviour have become clear over the last few years:

• Shoppers are more deliberate, planning budgets and wishlists ahead of time.
• Many browse early and buy later, especially in categories where comparing prices and bundles matters.​
• Value is not only about price; shipping speed, returns, trust and loyalty benefits all shape which brands win the cart.

In 2025, retailers saw strong performance when they combined sharp offers with clear value propositions and friction‑free checkout - particularly on mobile, where most visits now originate. Higher conversion and record GMV are great headlines, but they raise a strategic question: how much of that volume turns into profitable, repeatable business?

Segmenting your BFCM 2025 buyers

Step one in turning peak‑season shoppers into long‑term customers is segmentation. Instead of treating your BFCM list as one monolithic audience, break it into meaningful segments:

• New vs returning customers - identify those who discovered you for the first time versus those who came back for a deal.​
• High‑value carts - customers whose BFCM orders exceeded your average order value or included premium SKUs.​
• Early‑bird vs last‑minute buyers - those who bought in pre‑BFCM promotions vs those who responded only to final‑hour offers.

Each segment has different motivations and lifetime value potential. A high‑value new customer who bought early may be a great candidate for VIP‑style communication; a late, low‑margin bargain buyer might need a different approach.

Designing post‑BFCM journeys for 2026

Once you understand who bought what, when and at what margin, you can design 2026 journeys that fit. Some ideas:

1. Welcome and educate new customers
   New customers who arrive through BFCM need to be onboarded quickly into your brand world. Think tailored welcome flows that highlight bestsellers, how‑to content, brand mission and social proof, not just more discounts. This builds trust and positions you as more than a one‑time deal source.
   
   
2. Turn BFCM favourites into evergreen heroes
   Identify which products over‑performed during BFCM - by revenue, units, or margin - and build campaigns that feature them year‑round. Bundle them with complementary items, create loyalty offers, or build seasonal campaigns around them.​
   
   
3. Create a “win‑back” plan with guardrails
   For the heavier discount seekers, design a win‑back strategy that balances value and margin. That could include limited‑time bundles, product‑led offers (like size trials or add‑ons) or tiered loyalty rewards instead of permanent markdowns.
   
   
4. Connect BFCM behaviour to your 2026 calendar
   Look at when different segments bought and what categories they favoured. Use this to time your 2026 campaigns - for example, targeting gift‑driven buyers ahead of key occasions, or running early access for high‑value repeat shoppers.

Why loyalty is the real growth engine in 2026

Acquisition costs have climbed over recent years, and customers are more willing to switch brands for better perceived value. In that environment, loyalty and retention are not nice‑to‑have add‑ons; they are core to sustainable growth.

Brands that align funding, inventory and marketing around their most valuable segments tend to weather volatility better. They rely less on heavy discounting and more on smart merchandising, experience and lifecycle communication. BFCM then becomes a launchpad into the following year, not the main event.

Three actions you can take this quarter:

To turn BFCM 2025 from a spike into a 2026 growth engine:

1. Build a BFCM cohort dashboard. Track new vs returning, repeat purchase rate, segment‑level margins and campaign response for your BFCM cohort through Q1 and Q2.​

2. Design at least two dedicated journeys. One for your best new BFCM customers, one for high‑potential repeaters - each with specific content, offers and milestones.

3. Align your funding and inventory with retention plays. When you plan capital or stock for 2026, allocate resources to your most promising BFCM‑origin segments, not just to chase new customers at any cost.

When you look back on 2026, the question will not be “How big was our BFCM spike?” It will be “How many of those customers stayed?” Brands that answer that question well are building far more than a strong weekend; they are building a resilient, compounding business.